(Steel pipe,Steel bar,Steel Plate)Market Outlook – Forecasts – World Steel Prices metal market outlook for steel prices Year 2023+ Steel Price Projections
The note that follows considers near-term steel price forecasts – that is, the outlook for world steel prices in 2023 and beyond.
The price cycle – MCI view
A notable characteristic of world steel prices is that they are highly cyclical. As can be seen in the chart below, prices move from peak to trough every few years. Looking at pricing for typical steel products such as hot rolled coil (HRC) or reinforcing bar, the latest prominent peaks occurred in August 2011, April 2018 and September 2021; with price troughs occurring in May 2009, February 2016 and June 2020. Across these products, the average peak-to-peak or trough-to-trough time over the last 25 or so years works out at ~3-4 years. In our view, the next price peak can be expected around mid-2028 and the next pricing trough will occur in mid-2025.
Post time: Jul-31-2023